choosing

Recently I learned of the “Monty Hall Problem.” Not heard of it? It’s a well known theory among psychologists  in the study of what they term ‘cognitive dissonance’ (you can look it up) and it has to do with people’s remarkable ability to rationalize their choices. According to John Tierney in the NY Times, here’s how it works:

Monty shows you 3 doors with a car behind one and a goat behind the other two. If you open the one with the car, you win it. You start by picking a door but before it’s opened Monty will always open another door to reveal a goat. Then he’ll let you open either remaining door. What do you do? Stick with your original choice or choose the other door?

The answer may surprise you. With only two doors left the answer is 50-50 that the car is behind one of them. But when you stick with Door #1, you’ll win only if your original choice was correct, which happens only one in 3 times on average. If you switch, you’ll win whenever your original choice was wrong, which happens 2 out of 3 times! Makes sense right?

So, what does this tell us about the choices we make every day? Maybe nothing… maybe something. It seems to me that we are always second guessing ourselves and in many cases, second guessing our second guesses. I guess that’s third guessing? Then, no matter what the outcome, we rationalize our decision to justify the outcome. (“I picked Door #1 because it had a green stripe and green is my lucky color and it was the day before St. Patrick’s Day).

Of course, the best we can do is make informed decisions based on the facts we have at hand. But facts can change as our perceptions change, situations can change, people change so we make our best educated guesses on what to do and where to go with what we have at hand. Or we can calculate the odds and roll the dice based purely on statistics.  Then we wait to see what really is behind Door #1.

 I have always been one who made a decision based on gut reaction as much as on facts. Then I stick to it no matter what. Then, after the result is in, if it doesn’t work I second guess myself to distraction. If it works out then I gloat! Most of the time, my gut has served me well.  

Lately, however, I have noticed a new approach in my decision making and rationalization process. Stick with the facts. If I just look at what I know at that moment to be true and take the emotion out of the equation, I find myself satisfied no matter the outcome and there is no second guess, or third. So even if I get the goat, I can be satisfied that I made the right decision for me.

And now here’s where the Monty Hall Theory comes in… it’s OK to change your mind!

So, I pick Door #2. And, at the very least, I have goat stew for dinner!